Unit Sales Volume – Summary of Waterfront Single Family MLS® Listings and Sales for the last 4 years by area as reported by The Lakelands Association of REALTORS® in the Muskoka Market.
Sales by Price Range
Summary of Waterfront Cottage MLS® Listings and Sales for the last 4 years by area and price range as reported by The Lakelands Association of REALTORS®
The Cottage Sales by Year and Price Range
*Lake of Bays, Mary Lake, Fairy Lake, Peninsula Lake, Vernon Lake
Sales of waterfront properties recorded through the MLS® system of Muskoka Haliburton Orillia – The Lakelands Association of REALTORS® came in 29% below last July. On a year-to-date basis, waterfront sales were down 9.9% from the first seven months of 2016. This was still the second highest level on record for this period.
“Sales have slowed noticeably this summer, going from record levels in the spring back to historically more average levels in the space of just two months,” said Mike Stahls, President of Muskoka Haliburton Orillia – The Lakelands Association of REALTORS®. “That said, inventories in Cottage Country remain near record lows so the market is still very tight even with a number of buyers having moved to the sidelines this summer.”
The median price for waterfront sales was a record $500,000 in July 2017, rising 25% from July 2016.
The total value of waterfront sales was $155.4 million, edging up 0.2% from July 2016. This was also a record for the month of July.
BOARD & ASSOCIATION INFORMATION
The area served by the more than 700 REALTORS® who belong to Muskoka Haliburton Orillia – The Lakelands Association of REALTORS® serving Muskoka, Haliburton and Orillia, is located less than a two-hour drive north of Toronto, in the heart of Canada’s Cottage Country. There are several major geographical areas within the Association’s boundaries, including the City of Orillia, Gravenhurst, Bracebridge, Muskoka Lakes, Huntsville, Almaguin Highlands, Lake of Bays and Haliburton. Each of these areas has a unique blend of properties ranging from residential homes in the City of Orillia and smaller towns to the rural areas in-between, as well as a mix of waterfront homes/cottages on the many rivers and lakes throughout our regions that range from the smaller entry level properties to the prestigious.
In April the provincial Liberal Government proposed the Ontario Fair Housing legislation, a bundle of measures to make housing fairer and more affordable for Ontario tenants and buyers. Although the proposed legislation – now law related to tenants – will have an Ontario-wide application, the legislation to make housing more affordable for buyers has a narrow application, affecting what is known as the golden horseshoe. The northern boundaries of the golden horseshoe extent to southern Georgian Bay. As a result, the Muskoka and area region is not caught by the new legislation.
Specifically, the new legislation will impose a 15 percent of purchase price tax if the buyer is a “foreign entity”. In other words, if the buyer is not a resident of Canada or a Canadian citizen. There are numerous exemptions, but since the legislation does not apply to buyers and transactions in the Muskoka and area market place, a detailed explanation of these exemptions is beyond the scope of this Report.
The foreign buyers tax has had an immediate and dramatic impact on the Toronto and area market place. Since April 20th when the legislation was announced, sales have dropped by more than 30 percent, and the average sale price today compared to the mid-April high of $949,000 is almost $200,000 less. Since even the highest estimates indicate that only 5 percent of all purchases in the Toronto area market place were by foreign buyers, the new tax should not have had the dramatic impact that it has had. The effect is clearly psychological more than actual, since none of the area’s economic fundaments have changed.
Since the tax does not apply to transactions in the Muskoka and area market place, it should be of little importance, except for the possibility of the psychological spill-over effect seeping into the market place from the lack of market activity in the greater Toronto area.
As of the date of preparation of this Report there is no noticeable impact of the foreign buyer’s tax in the Muskoka and area market place. The main concern for the area is lack of inventory of recreational properties for sale. At the end of June, the Muskoka – Haliburton Association of Realtors had only 766 available recreational listings. This compares with 1187 for the same period last year, a decline of 35 percent. In 2015 there were 1511 active listings.
The situation is similar in all regions. In the Haliburton Highlands listings are down by 35 percent compared to the same period last year (272 to 175). In Lake of Bays the decline is 37 percent (128 to 80) and on Muskoka’s big lakes the decline is a little better at 31 percent (343 to 236). In 2015 the inventory levels were even higher than in 2016.
It comes as no surprise that with declining inventories the pattern of sales is somewhat fractured. Overall sales of recreational properties for the region were up by 3.2 percent compared to June 2016. In May they were up by 12 percent.
Sales on Muskoka’s big lakes were up by 10 percent. In May the year-to-date increase compared to last year was 19 percent. On Lake of Bays sales increased by a stunning 47 percent year-to-date. In May the increase was 45 percent.
For the second month in a row the only region showing a decline in sales is the Haliburton Highlands. In May the year-to-date decline was 10 percent. The market posted a further decline of 9.3 percent in June. Since the Haliburton Highlands region has had the greatest declines in inventory this year, these declines in sale, are probably inventory driven rather than by a lack of demand.
It is not surprising that under theses market circumstances that average sale prices continue to rise. For example, in June the average sale price for all recreational properties reported sold (with a sale price of $500,000 or more) on Lake Rousseau, Lake Joseph and Lake Muskoka, Muskoka’s big lakes, was $2,318,465. This represents a 5 percent increase compared to last June’s average sale price of $2,213,371.
Notwithstanding these declines in inventory Chestnut Park and its sales representatives have outpaced the overall recreational market place. On a year-to-date basis sales are up by more than 7 percent compared to last year, which was the strongest year in the firm’s history, and the dollar volume of sales has increased by more than 27 percent.
For the time-being reduced inventory levels continue to put pressure on buyers, as they are being forced to pay more for desirable recreational properties. A phenomenon normally associated with the Toronto market place, namely multiple buyers bidding for the same property, is now more common in the region. Unless the market becomes impacted by the new provincial tax on foreign buyers, we can anticipate the market place continuing to tighten. At this point it is difficult to foresee what might drive sellers of recreational properties to bring their properties to market. After all, recreational properties are not traded for the same reasons as urban transactions. These sales are discretionary on the part of buyers, and driven by circumstances on the part of Sellers.
Prepared by: Chris Kapches, LLB, President and CEO, Broker
Sales of waterfront properties recorded through the MLS® system of Muskoka Haliburton Orillia – The Lakelands Association of REALTORS® came in just two sales below last May’s record.
On a year-to-date basis, waterfront sales were up 2.9% from the first five months of 2016. This was the highest level on record for this period.
“At this point the local housing market appears to be on its way to another record year in 2017,” said Mike Stahls, President of Muskoka Haliburton Orillia – The Lakelands Association of REALTORS®. “That said, housing markets not too far south of Cottage Country cooled in May in the wake of recently announced changed to Ontario housing policy. That did not seem affect our area in May, but it will be worth keeping an eye out in the months ahead for any signs of those Greater Golden Horseshoe demand and supply trends creeping into the Muskoka, Haliburton and Orillia areas.”
The median price for waterfront sales was $522,500 in May 2017, rising 24.4% from May 2016.
The total value of waterfront sales was $164.2 million, up 1.2% from May 2016.
Summary – Sales by Housing Type
Category
May 2017
May 2016
Year-over-year
percentage change
Waterfront
242
244
-0.8
Includes transactions in all areas recorded by Muskoka Haliburton Orillia – The Lakelands Association of REALTORS®
Summary – Median Price by Housing Type
Category
May 2017
May 2016
Year-over-year
percentage change
Waterfront
$522,500
$420,000
24.4
Includes transactions in all areas recorded by Muskoka Haliburton Orillia – The Lakelands Association of REALTORS®
Detailed – Waterfront Sales and Median Price by Area
Waterfront
By Area
Unit Sales
Median Sale Price
May 2017
May 2016
Year-over-year
percentage
change
May 2017
May 2016
Year-over-year
percentage
change
Muskoka
165
156
5.8
$515,000
$429,500
19.9
Haliburton
57
55
3.6
$510,000
$399,000
27.8
Orillia
19
33
-42.4
$650,000
$410,000
58.5
All Other Areas
1
0
—
$445,000
$0
—
Note: A percentage change of — indicates there were no sales in the same month one year ago.
BOARD & ASSOCIATION INFORMATION
The area served by the more than 700 REALTORS® who belong to Muskoka Haliburton Orillia – The Lakelands Association of REALTORS® serving Muskoka, Haliburton and Orillia, is located less than a two-hour drive north of Toronto, in the heart of Canada’s Cottage Country. There are several major geographical areas within the Association’s boundaries, including the City of Orillia, Gravenhurst, Bracebridge, Muskoka Lakes, Huntsville, Almaguin Highlands, Lake of Bays and Haliburton. Each of these areas has a unique blend of properties ranging from residential homes in the City of Orillia and smaller towns to the rural areas in-between, as well as a mix of waterfront homes/cottages on the many rivers and lakes throughout our regions that range from the smaller entry level properties to the prestigious.
– January-April, 2017 An in-depth look at the Muskoka real estate numbers by the Gardiner Team
Number of Listings and Sales
Unit Sales Volume – Summary of Waterfront Cottage MLS® Listings and Sales for the past 2 years, and this year to date as compared to last year to date, by area as reported by The Lakelands Association of REALTORS® and The Parry Sound & Area Association of REALTORS®.
Sales by Price Range
Summary of Waterfront Cottage MLS® Listings and Sales for the past 2 years, and this year to date as compared to last year to date, by area and price range as reported by The Lakelands Association of REALTORS® and The Parry Sound & Area Association of REALTORS®.
Muskoka Waterfront Cottage Sales by Year and Price Range
As reported by The Lakelands Association of REALTORS® and The Parry Sound & Area Association of REALTORS®.
As 2016 came to an end, the concern in the Muskoka and area recreational market place could be summed up in one word: supply. The lack of supply has become dramatically obvious in the first three months of 2017. Generally supply is limited during the early months of any year. Weather conditions, inability to access properties, and the disinterest of buyers usually means that recreational properties are not brought to market until April or even later. This report acknowledges that market phenomenon, and is simply comparing what was happening in 2016 against the first three months of 2017.
The Muskoka-Haliburton Realtor Association reports that during the first three months of 2017 it processed 1815 listings of all types. This is a decline of 15 percent compared to 2131 listings that were submitted by local realtors during the same period in 2016. The decline in recreational inventory is even more startling. At the end of March the Association reported 439 active recreational property listings, a decline of more than 40 percent compared to the 751 recreational property listings on the market last year.
The situation is even more dramatic in 2 of the three market places in which Chestnut Park’s agents are active. On Muskoka’s big lakes (Rosseau, Joe, and Muskoka) there were only 103 active listings at the end of March, a decline of almost 50 percent compared to the 200 active listings available to buyers last year. The situation in the Haliburton Highlands is no different. Last year there were 193 active listings, this year only 103, a decline of 47 percent. Although listings are down in Lake of Bays the decline is not as extreme as in Muskoka’s big lakes and the Haliburton Highlands. This year there were 59 active listings, last year 83, comparatively a moderate decline of 30 percent.
At this stage of the year we have limited recreational property sales data. What we do have does not indicate that there is a corresponding decline in demand. The Association reports that 101 recreational properties have been reported sold year-to-date, an increase of 15 percent compared to the 88 reported sold last year. On the big lakes there has been a marginal increase in sales: 21 this year compared to 19 last year. Sales activity in the Haliburton Highlands is marginally down: 27 last year, 25 this year. Only Lake of Bays has shown an appreciable increase in sales, although the actual numbers are small: 12 reported sales this year compared to 9 last year, an increase of 30 percent.
During the first three months of 2017 Chestnut Park’s agents were responsible for 25 recreational property sales, representing $27,875,500 in dollar volume. This result is our highest number of reported sales during this period in the year, and by far the highest dollar volume ever achieved. These numbers also demonstrate that demand remains strong. The next best year for sales was in 2012 and for dollar volume it was last year.
What to expect:
Unless something dramatic happens we can anticipate a very tight recreational market as 2017 continues to unfold. As forecast in the year-end report, we will begin to see competition for well priced, desirable properties.
That competition will not amount to the frenzied activity that has become the norm in urban environments like Toronto, but multiple offers will not be uncommon. This is brought out by the fact that agents have already experienced the multiple offer phenomenon on new listings and when acting for buyers.
The unknown factor that may have an impact on the Muskoka real estate market place will be the provincial government’s reaction to the runaway prices for properties in Toronto and area. The prevailing belief is that foreign investors and speculation are fuelling price increases. Legislation by the provincial government in either or both of these areas could have a cooling effect on recreational markets, even if the effect is due to a wait-and-see stance by buyers. Unfortunately by the time the impact of the tax is absorbed by consumers, the major part of the recreational selling season will be at an end. It is anticipated that the province will move to deal with exorbitantly rising prices in Toronto and area by late April or May.
Prepared by:Chris Kapches, LLB, President and CEO, Broker
There are a number of fantastic meat shops in and around Muskoka. Procuring locally sourced, ethically produced food has never been easier while at the cottage.
One of our particular favourites is McMaster’s. We love the sausage rolls and pot pies for an easy snack option when we are so busy in the summer. We also love how they support local dog rescues, dog parks and the proceeds from the sale of their doggie bones goes directly to animal charities. They are active supporters of Muskoka Big Brother’s and Sisters. Great food and great people.
McMaster’s Fine Foods has been servicing Bracebridge & Muskoka for over 10 years. They are reputable meat-butcher shop with chicken, grass-fed beef and pork as well as bison and ostrich and weekly Fish specials. Deli counter has cold cuts and cheeses. Salads, cabbage and sausage rolls, vegetable samosas, meat pies and more made in-house. Open daily.
Sales of waterfront properties recorded through the MLS® system of Muskoka Haliburton Orillia – The Lakelands Association of REALTORS®, declined by 14 per cent in October 2016, albeit from a record last October.
On a year-to-date basis waterfront sales were still up 11.8 per cent from the first nine months of 2015. This was the best first 10 months to any year on record.
“While waterfront property sales took a step down from last October they are still very strong, with much of that year-over-year decline simply reflecting the white hot pace of sales at this time last year when there were still many more properties for sale on the market,” said Mike Taylor, President of Muskoka Haliburton Orillia – The Lakelands Association of REALTORS®. “Having said all that, the bigger picture is that 2016 will, in all likelihood, be the best year ever for sales in the Lakelands region.”
The median price for residential non-waterfront property sales was $250,000 in October 2016, up 9.6 per cent from October 2015. On a year-to-date basis the median price was running at $255,000, up 8.5 per cent from the first 10 months of 2015.
The median price for waterfront sales in October 2016 showed an increase of 13 per cent from October 2015. On a year-to-date basis the median price for waterfront property sales was up 9.5 per cent from the first 10 months of 2015.
The total value of waterfront sales was $101 million, an increase of 16.8 per cent from October of last year. This was the highest level for October on record and marked the first time volumes had ever surpassed $100 million in this month.
Includes transactions in all areas recorded by Muskoka Haliburton Orillia – The Lakelands Association of REALTORS®
Important information The area served by the more than 680 REALTORS® who belong to Muskoka Haliburton Orillia – The Lakelands Association of REALTORS® serving Muskoka, Haliburton and Orillia, is located less than a two-hour drive north of Toronto, in the heart of Canada’s Cottage Country. There are several major geographical areas within the Association’s boundaries, including the City of Orillia, Gravenhurst, Bracebridge, Muskoka Lakes, Huntsville, Almaguin Highlands, Lake of Bays and Haliburton. Each of these areas has a unique blend of properties ranging from residential homes in the City of Orillia and smaller towns to the rural areas in-between, as well as a mix of waterfront homes/cottages on the many rivers and lakes throughout our regions that range from the smaller entry level properties to the prestigious.
Waterfront sales activity recorded through the MLS® system of Muskoka Haliburton Orillia – The Lakelands Association of REALTORS® rose 17.3 per cent year-over-year to 244 units in August 2016 compared to the same month in 2015.
On a year-to-date basis waterfront sales were up 13.8 per cent from the first eight months of 2015. This was the best start to any year on record.
“With residential non-waterfront and Waterfront sales both setting records for the month of August, both segments of the market remain on track for new annual sales records this year,” said Mike Taylor, President of Muskoka Haliburton Orillia – The Lakelands Association of REALTORS®. “The median prices for non-waterfront and waterfront properties both also posted sizeable year-over-year gains in August.”
The median price for waterfront sales across the board was $442,500 in August 2016, an increase of 14.8 per cent from August 2015.
The total value of waterfront sales was $186.4 million, jumping 51.8 per cent from August of last year. This was the highest level of any month on record.
A pattern has developed in the Muskoka and region recreational market place that most recently has been evident only in Ontario’s urban market places: a lack of property inventory. The greater Toronto area has been experiencing inventory shortages for more than 2 years. The situation is becoming one of concern. In centres such as Toronto, Hamilton and other large metropolitan areas there is little or no choice for buyers. Sellers who may want to buy up are not putting their properties on the market because there is little for them to buy, and when an appropriate property becomes available, they find themselves in competition.
The Muskoka and area recreational marketplace has not reached that acute state, but it is showing signs of doing so. The Lakelands Association of REALTORS® reports that to the end of July it processed 6,360 multiple listing service properties. This is a 12 percent decline compared to the 7,240 listings the Association processed to the end of July in 2015. The decline is even sharper if we focus exclusively on recreational properties. For example, at the end of July there were 1,212 recreational properties for sale across the greater Muskoka region. Last year there were 1,571, a concerning decline of almost 23 percent. In varying degrees the same is true in the 3 regions in which Chestnut Park and its agents primarily operate.
The Haliburton Highlands area reports a 33 percent decline in available listings at the end of July- this decline actually exceeds the decline being experienced in the greater Toronto area. At this time last year there were 395 recreational properties available for buyers to purchase. This year there are only 264. In the Lake of Bays area the decline is much less at 7 .6 percent. Last year there were 156 recreational properties available for sale, this year only 144. The decline in the Muskoka big lakes is also note-worthy. Last year there were 448 recreational properties for sale, this year more than 100 less at 34 7, a decline of more than 22 percent.
Not only is inventory declining, and to some extent because of these declines, except for the Lake of Bays area, there have been dramatic increases in sales. Throughout the greater Muskoka region, 721 multiple listing service sales were reported to the end of July, an eye-popping 22.4 percent increase compared to the same period last year. To put this in perspective, this percentage increase exceeds the increase in sales (by percentage) in the greater Toronto area. In the Haliburton Highlands, year to date reported sales are up by an astounding 33 percent. Last year to the end of July 165 recreational properties were reported sold, this year that number jumped to 220. Similar results are to be seen on Muskoka’s big lakes. Last year there were 163 reported sales of recreational properties, this year there have been 191 sales, a solid 17 .1 percent increase. Only Lake of Bays inexplicably has not seen an increase in sales. Last year there were 60, this year 56.
This year there have been 28 reported sales on Muskoka’s big lakes with a sale price exceeding $2 Million. One of these recreational properties sold for $9,335,000 and another for $11,400,000. Last year there were only 24 recreational property sales with sales prices exceeding $2 Million. Property sales having a sale price exceeding $1 Million increased dramatically as compared to 2015. In 2015 there were 104 properties in this category. This year that number jumped to 129, an increase of almost 25 percent.
Chestnut Park and its sales representatives continue to dominate the recreation marketplace in the Port Carling area. To the end of July, Chestnut Park reported almost 40 percent more sales in dollar volume than the next competitive office in the area. On a year to date basis Chestnut Park’s agents have been engaged in 142 recreational property sales. This is a new record for the Brokerage, surpassing the previous record of 112 property sales achieved by the end of July in 2015 and 2014. In dollar volume 2016 has also been a record year with Chestnut Park sales representatives engaging in more than $156 Million in recreational property sales, surpassing the previous record of $146 Million in sales achieved only last year.
Looking towards the later part of2016 and the fall market, the concern is inventory, particularly in the $1 Million to $1.8 Million price points. It is obvious that demand is strong, but there may not be sufficient inventory to satisfy it. As has been the case in urban markets, year over year sales of certain property types
(detached and semi-detached properties) have declined because of a lack of inventory. What has propped up the over-all market numbers, particularly in the greater Toronto area, has been the availability of condominium apartments, a property form that has had no impact on recreational markets.
Words of Appreciation
“Thank you for the memorable sales and closing experience of finding the cottage of our dreams. A perfect fit for our needs.”
I & E – Lake Muskoka cottage buyers
“Jim and Iris Gardiner were both amazing to deal with. A truly professional team. They shared a great deal of knowledge with us and really shed important light regarding potential Island Cottage ownership – all the pros and cons. Not only did they sell our existing cottage in 24 hours for much higher than our asking price they helped us find our new slice of paradise on Lake Muskoka in a very tight market. We are thrilled with our new cottage and love being on Eilean Gowan Island! We would highly recommend either Jim or Iris for any of your Real Estate needs!”
J & D – Sold on Echo Lake and bought on Lake Muskoka
Jim did me a favor 20 years ago and I wanted to return the favor – I approached him and Iris at the cottage show and, even though I already had a real estate agent, he recommended a cottage property that I purchased and enjoyed for those 20 years. I therefore, tracked him down and had him be our agent in selling that property. Our priority was to find new owners that would be friendly and fit in well with the neighbors and Jim and Iris found the perfect couple Jim and Iris made the entire sale most enjoyable. The experience was so smooth and enjoyable that the sellers, the buyers and the real estate agents all got together for supper the following summer at our old cottage!
K & L – Lake Muskoka
It is with great pleasure and appreciation for me to recommend the services of Jim Gardiner and the entire Gardiner Team. Jim’s awareness of community by-laws and market related activities extracted incremental value for us when we were finalizing the purchasing agreement.
JB – Mirror Lake
Just want to tell you that you did a fine job for me on the cottage sale on Lake Muskoka. The sale has removed a huge load from my shoulders. Iris, just a note to thank you again. Money is in the bank!!!!!!
Lesley-Anne Goodfellow