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Real Estate Market Report January-April 2022: Muskoka Region

Real Estate Market Report January-April 2022: Muskoka Region

Real Estate Market Report January-April 2022: Muskoka Region

Prepared By: Chris Kapches, LLB, President and CEO, Broker

MAY 13, 2022

Many of the themes that first emerged in the Muskoka and Region recreational marketplace during the pandemic are still in play during the first third of 2022. Average sale prices continue to rise, days on market remain exceptionally low, and the sale to list price ratio is behaving like a busy urban market. Prior to the pandemic, even during the most robust markets, the sale to list price ratio never exceed 98 percent. During the first four months of 2022 the sale to list price ratio came in at 106.6 percent, which means that all waterfront properties reported sold during the period sold (on average) for 106.6 percent of their asking price.

The only negative variance is the number of reported sales. That is because 2021 sales numbers were unprecedented and unlikely to soon be repeated. As the above-noted chart indicates, sales comparison to previous years, 2020 and 2019, are still exceptionally strong. The major market driver remains supply. It is almost inconceivable that the number of available waterfront properties have declined by more than 85 percent since 2015, while over the same period demand has increased exponentially.

Market activity in the recreational markets of Bracebridge, Gravenhurst, Huntsville, the Haliburton Highlands, Lake of Bays, and Muskoka Lakes is consistent with the overall market performance. Of particular note is the rise in average sale prices in these markets. Since the pandemic prices have increased by 37 to an incredible 202 percent in the Bracebridge waterfront market. During the first third of the year, average sale prices in the area came in at $1,318,890.

The Muskoka Lakes recreational market continues to be the most expensive in the region, with even the smaller lakes’ sales generating prices exceeding $2,000,000. Due to price point, both days on market and sale to list price ratio deviate slightly from the overall market. Both are still exceptionally robust and dramatically stronger than pre-pandemic markets.

During the first four months of 2022, there were 18 sales recorded on Muskoka’s Big Lakes (Joseph, Rosseau, and Muskoka). This does not include any off-market sales that took place during this period. For all of 2021, there were 160 recorded sales on the Big Lakes. The record for sales on the Big Lakes was in 2020, the first pandemic year. An amazing 234 waterfront properties were sold on the Big Lakes that year. The average sale price for all properties sold on the Big Lakes this year came in at $4,884,000.

Chestnut Park and its sales representatives have had a very strong start in 2022. As at the end of April we had recorded 56 sales totalling almost $92 Million in dollar volume. Chestnut Park’s Port Carling office, located at the hub of the Big Lakes, continues to dominate the recreational resale market, exceeding its closest competing brokerage office’s sales volume by almost 40 percent. Chestnut Park’s offices in Huntsville, Haliburton Highlands, Gravenhurst and our newest office in Baysville have seen their market share grow dramatically in their respective marketplaces.

Looking ahead to the summer season we can anticipate a comparatively more subdued selling season. Although rising mortgage interest rates will play a minor role in a less exuberant market, the dominant factor responsible for a decline in the number of sales as compared to the same period in 2020 and 2021 will be the lack of supply. As the chart below very clearly indicates, the number of new waterfront properties coming to market for the entire Muskoka region in the first third of the year compared to 2020 and 2021 has declined substantially. The wobbly equities market may ultimately play the most important economic role in the resale market during the second third of 2022.

This entry was posted on May 19, 2022 by Jim and Iris

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